Since September, Russia has launched hundreds of Iranian-supplied loitering munitions (self-detonating drones) against Ukraine’s power grid. Tehran has much faster and deadlier drones and short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) that it might also supply Moscow after October when a key condition in a 2015 U.N. Security Council resolution restricting Iranian missile exports is set to expire.
In December, Axios reported that Iran plans to limit the range and payload of any SRBMs it supplies Russia. Tehran wants to avoid violating U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231, which bans it from exporting drones or SRBMs with ranges exceeding 300 kilometers (186 miles) and payloads greater than 500 kilograms until October 2023. If Iran is caught violating that resolution, it could trigger the “snapback” of U.N. sanctions.
The resolution was introduced in 2015 as part of the Iranian nuclear deal. Under that resolution, the ban on Iran importing and exporting conventional arms expired in October 2020. Tehran has since exported hundreds of loitering munitions, mostly the Shahed-136 model, to Russia and is expected to receive Su-35 fighter jets in return sometime this year.
However, it’s unclear if Iran has yet delivered any SRBMs or longer-range drones, such as the Arash-2. Tehran reportedly plans to modify the Fateh-110 SRBM, which can hit targets up to 300 km away, to ensure it doesn’t violate 2231. It has also ruled out sending the Zolfagher SRBM, which has a range of 700 km range (434 miles). Significant quantities of these weapons could potentially enable Russia to continue or even expand its systematic destruction of Ukraine’s electricity grid and infrastructure.
Is Tehran merely biding its time and waiting until the 2231 stipulation expires before it supplies Moscow with these more advanced and lethal loitering munitions and SRBMs?
Source : Forbes
